Thursday, March 6, 2008

China vs Taiwan - Now What?

Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, and formerly ruled by the Chinese government, has been "self-governing" since 1949. Up until 1971, Taiwan held a seat in the United Nations as the Republic of China, but that seat was given to the Chinese government in Beijing.

Throughout, China has maintained that Taiwan is part of China, even though it is not on the Chinese mainland.

Thus, when Taiwan makes noises about declaring independence, China gets its back up and rattles its sabers.

We've got a problem. Taiwan wants to again apply for membership in the United Nations. Beijing says no. Beijing believes that a move for UN membership would be tantamount to a move for independence, which Beijing will not abide.

Taiwan has scheduled a referendum on March 22 on the UN membership question.

Jiang Enzhu, a spokesperson for the Chinese parliament, says Beijing would "repulse" any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence. He claimed that if the Taiwanese president, Chen Shui-bian, engages in "adventurous activities" aimed at making Taiwan independent, Taiwan "will surely play a dear price."

The Taiwanese act like such talk does not frighten them. That may be because the US has promised to protect them from the big Red bear.

So what are the freedom-loving, democracy espousing leaders of the United States saying about all this? Condi Rice, the US Secretary of State pulled no punches:

Washington is strongly opposed to Taiwan's referendum on membership in the UN.

It is, she said "a provocative policy," and raised tensions in the area "unnecessarily," without promising any "real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage."

What that diplomatic doubletalk means is that the United States is scared to death of a conflict between China and Taiwan. There isn't any question that China, with its overwhelming military superiority, would wipe Taiwan from the face of the earth in about two hours. But that's not our real concern.

As mentioned above, we've made certain promises to cover Taiwan's rear extremities if they get into fisticuffs with China. Most of those were made in the heat of the Cold War, but they're still out there - hanging in the air.

And, with China being our largest trading partner, and holding billions of dollars worth of U.S. credit, China is one sleeping giant we really don't want to wake.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sometimes I think politics plays a part in such decisions. Israel is not recognized by many but Palestine has some legal stutus at the UN.
Wait until Kosovo asks for UN membership.
Bob Poris

Unknown said...

I think you need to look at two issues in your blog.

Firstly the divisions between China and Taiwan go back long before 1949 as Taiwan was ruled by Japan from 1895 to 1945 which can go part of the way in explaining why Taiwan is so much more advanced than Taiwan. Particularly of interest is the Japanese contribution to Taiwan's establishment of its university system. When the KMT fled to Taiwan they actually had to carry out of Sinification policy to teach the Taiwanese to behave in a more "Chinese Way". This included discouraging the widespread speaking of Japanese and encouraging Taiwanese to make more widespread use of Mandarin.

In addition to this Taiwan was only ever united with China under the same political entity during the Manchu Qing dynasty which wasn't an ethnic Han dynasty but a minority Manchu regieme held in disdain by many of the Han majority.

Finally your sentence about not wanting to wake China from its slumber is somewhat dubious.It would seem you are advocating a policy of appeasement in giving into China's territorial claims. In a similar manner as to what Britain and France did in the
1930s under their policy of appeasement to Nazi Germany. Which was ultimately a failure.

The policy of appeasement in regards to China has already failed. As India rolled over in terms of recognising Chinese soveriegnty over Tibet believing this would pacify China towards making further demands on India. This can be seen to be a false hope as China is currently pursuing further territorial claims against India.

What's more the fact that China is in fact woken from its slumber can be seen in the way that China is claiming the entire South China Sea all the way to just of the coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. China has already stepped up its intimidation of its South East Asian neighbours in pursuit of these claims.

So to follow a policy of appeasement towards China would be fatally flawed.

Lowell said...

Thanks, Andrew, for your excellent comments. I appreciate very much your insights and additions, as they are useful to better understand the situation in Taiwan.

Re: Awakening the sleeping giant. Please be assured that I am not advocating anything. I have no answer to the problem, and I agree that appeasement often creates much greater problems.

I was simply making an observation as to what I would guess is behind U.S. policy ... the U.S. doesn't want Taiwan and China to take actions against each other as that would draw in the U.S. and then what?

It could be a disastrous scenario anyway it played out.

Again, thanks much. I found your points well taken and very helpful.

Jacob

Unknown said...

Washington policy & US politicians are all dictated by mongers [Boeing, auto makers, IBM, Wal-Mart, Big Mac., Yahoo,... to name a few] & greedy mongers are dictated by where the profits are. For the moment it is China where the huge market & profits are. Now you see what must be happening!

Freedom, democracy, justice, human right, etc., etc. are just a bunch of empty slogans in politicians' speeches.

Our poor boy friend's [Taiwan's] market is too small to compare with mainland China, so we ask him to be quiet, do nothing but stay put & never, never try to rock the boat while we are busy counting our money in China.

So this is the fact of life in our world. It is the golden rule of reality in life. Poor Taiwan, what can you do? If our arms pushers & Washington suck it to you on our outdated surplus inventory at 600% markups, take it or else...!!!

Gee, why didn't I think of it until my dear Bob P. mentioned something on this blog about Israel & UN.

Dear Bob: Would you please get hold of our friend Andrew[also on this blog] to help our poor world orphan [Taiwan] to wisely use her money [US$160 billions of them sitting in US banks & US bonds today] to buy TLC from dear Uncle just as Israel has done so successfully in the past?

Here is how you do it:

[1] Donate handsomely to all US politicians at all levels--Fed including White House, 50 states & Congress--in election years or as needed. Would $10 billions a year be enough? &

[2] Promise to buy all the outdated junks from arms makers at (only) 300% markups. Poor orphan may not mind paying higher price than Israei & Saudis did, but not at 600% markups, please! $20 billions a year too little?! Tell me how much is enough for thier TLC?

We [Taiwanese] will continue to work harder for HP, Apple, Intel, Dell, IBM & many other IT mongers to keep our US bank accounts full from now on. But, please, please do not treat us as the unwanted orphans all the time & please ask Ms. Rice & her associates not to act as Beijing's spokespersons to scare us to death anymore!

Please, please, please......

Anonymous said...

Interesting comments re Taiwan! I am not knowledgeable as to recent developments, as my news magazines, PBS and my local newspapers seem to ignore it. I am glad to learn more and welcome the comments. I am not sure I understand Ki’s comments as sarcasm sometimes goes over my head. I welcome the comments though and hope to learn more about that neglected area. So far, our news media is more concerned with the plight of the poor Palestinians and ignore news from Asia, unless it has to do with North Korea. Perhaps oil should be discovered there so we can get more involved.
Bob Poris

Unknown said...

SQUEAKY WHEELS GET GREASE!
Both Israel & Palestine made a lot of noises, that's why they got most of attentions. While Taiwan has been isolated from the world since 1971. Besides, Taiwanese are in general reserved, gentle, polite, peaceful & not outspoken. Most of Taiwan's leaders & government officials don't even speak English. How you expect them to make noises?

At the present Taiwan is used & manipulated by USA & PRC:

[1] US arms makers dump their outdated inventory to Taiwan at 'highway robbery' prices, in comparison to the price that Israel paid.

US' IT industries use Taiwan as their assembly lines at the costs much lower than US costs; &

[2] PRC used all possible tactics & incentives to lure Taiwan's capitals to mainland. Currently Taiwan may be the biggest foreign investor in PRC.

No wonder the US keeps yelling to Taiwan to stay status quo [so she can keep squeeze the quiet boy] & PRC keeps threatening Taiwan to join the communist regime [so PRC can forfeit Taiwan's assets legally].

It's all for greed & benefits. THEREFORE you, Uncle Sam, don't lecture to the world about Justice, Liberty, Democracy, Human Right, Freedom of this, Freedom of that...anymore!! Shame, shame, shame. Shame on FREE world! Shame on the only super power on earth, USA!!

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